20 %

 

Are you a gambler? 

What is your threshold for the odds? 

Would you lay down a bet if you were 90% sure?  How about 75%? 

I'd say anything over 50% is fair game, right?  What about four to one odds?  That's a 20% probability. 

To put it in perspective...

Meteorology works with a 60% baseline probability.  

Baseball considers 30% a really good probability. 

Politics declares a winner at 50.1%.

Flipping a coin is exactly 50%. 

Insurance companies, lottery tickets, sports gambling...they all work on probabilities. 

What about the long shot? 

Four to One is a long shot.  Would you take it? 

Would you take it if you felt really strongly about it?  Would you take it if you felt this choice could be a game-changer?  Remember, if you go for the 20%, you might lose the other 80%, and then you are dead in the water.  But, the payoff...

Every once in a while, you need to put all your chips in on the long shot.  The reward far outweighs the risk.  Take a shot. 

Most of the time, it's the right call to play the odds. But if you always stick to the odds, you are the odd man out. Opportunity missed. 

"Roll it, boy...let 'em jump for joy.  Yeah, man...happy as a baby boy." 

Go ahead kid...roll 'em.